Imagine if, at the start of the season, I had predicted that a Spanish club would score so prolifically that scorekeepers across the country might face overwhelming demand. This team would produce Europe's leading scorer, who would tally an incredible 33 goals in just 10 matches, establishing an eight-goal lead over their rivals by late October.
You might have thought, "Surely that’s Real Madrid! After all, they just clinched both the La Liga and Champions League titles and signed the world's top striker! With Ballon d'Or contender Vinícius Júnior and the addition of Kylian Mbappé, how could anyone compete?"
However, you would have been mistaken.
In reality, it’s Barcelona that has achieved remarkable success in the first ten games of the season, not Real Madrid. While Madrid remains unbeaten and only three points adrift, their performances have been inconsistent. Barcelona, on the other hand, has claimed victory in five league matches by margins of three goals or more. In contrast, Madrid has only managed to score three goals in a La Liga match twice this season. The team showcasing exceptional attacking capabilities is not the one boasting Vinícius, Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham.
Although the season still has a long way to go and Madrid is still considered a strong contender for the La Liga title, it’s evident that Barcelona has been the standout team thus far. They are operating at peak performance, while Madrid is still trying to find their rhythm.
As we gear up for Saturday's El Clásico, live on ESPN+, let’s delve into the reasons behind Barcelona's impressive form.
**1. Clinical Finishing**
A significant factor is Barcelona's ability to convert chances into goals. Last season, they netted 79 goals based on an expected goals (xG) total of 78.47, a metric that assesses the quality of scoring opportunities.
While it may seem typical for teams to meet their xG, elite squads generally exceed these figures by creating ample chances for their top scorers. Coaches facing difficulties in a season often find themselves replaced, yet Xavi Hernandez encountered similar obstacles at Barcelona last year.
In contrast, Hansi Flick, who stepped in this season, has revitalized the team. After ten matches, Barcelona has scored 33 goals from an xG of 26.4. Had they finished at last season’s rate, they would have a goal difference of +16—still the best in the league, but just ahead of Real Madrid (+14) and Atletico Madrid (+10). Instead, they boast an impressive +23.
Flick is a marked improvement over Xavi, who had limited managerial experience at Al Sadd in Qatar. Although Xavi was a competent coach, he struggled to consistently elevate his players’ performance.
**2. Aggressive Coaching Style**
Flick's coaching style has faced criticism as being overly ambitious. His stints with Germany and Bayern Munich led some to label him as "naïve." His teams often created numerous scoring chances but sometimes conceded unnecessary goals. Germany’s disappointing exit from the 2022 World Cup is a prime example, where they generated 10.1 xG but managed to score only six goals while allowing five.
This does not imply that Flick is without flaws, but in many sports, coaches often adopt a conservative approach, prioritizing not losing over pursuing victory. Flick, on the other hand, is intent on dominating his opponents. His teams press with intensity, take numerous shots, and accept the risk of conceding chances. This season, Barcelona has embraced a more aggressive pressing style, controlling larger portions of the field, attempting more shots, and allowing fewer attempts against them.
**3. Statistical Edge**
To illustrate their dominance, we can look at La Liga teams based on passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) and field tilt, which gauges possession in the final third. Barcelona's aggressive tactics have positioned them favorably in these metrics, reinforcing their status as a formidable opponent as they prepare for El Clásico.
In conclusion, as we approach this pivotal match, it’s clear that Barcelona's current form, aggressive play style, and clinical finishing make them the favorites against Real Madrid.